Everyone has an opinion – “iPhone is better than Android,” “Cream-y is better than crunchy,” “Invisibility is a better superpower than flying,” and “Muffins are cupcakes without icing,” among others. When it comes to the important stuff – Fantasy Football – there are hundreds of individual rankings available on the internet. “Jack Pott’s rankings are superior to Joe King’s.” Moreover, all of the Fantasy Football host platforms (ESPN, Yahoo, etc.) promote their lists as being the result of dozens of experts averaged together to form composite rankings. Additionally, there are the results from millions of Fantasy Football drafts compiled into the Average Draft Position (ADP) list. Is there strength in numbers? Do the experts perform better than millions of participants?
Using a composite ranking from one hosting platform for a draft on another platform gives you a rule-breaking exhilaration. Relying on the consensus rankings from non-hosting platforms like Rotoballer or Fantasy Pros is truly renegade. Teams In A Vacuum evaluates the accuracy of several popular composite rankings and ADP.
| Average Draft Position | ESPN Pre-Season Rankings | |||
| Rank | Name | Rank | Name | |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 1 | Austin Ekeler | |
| 2 | Austin Ekeler | 2 | Christian McCaffrey | |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | 3 | Bijan Robinson | |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson | 4 | Saquon Barkley | |
| 5 | Nick Chubb | 5 | Derrick Henry | |
| 6 | Tony Pollard | 6 | Tony Pollard | |
| 7 | Derrick Henry | 7 | Nick Chubb | |
| 8 | Josh Jacobs | 8 | Josh Jacobs | |
| 9 | Najee Harris | 9 | Joe Mixon | |
| 10 | Travis Etienne | 10 | Travis Etienne | |
| 11 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 11 | Najee Harris | |
| 12 | Joe Mixon | 12 | Jahmyr Gibbs | |
| Fantasy Pros Pre-Season Rankings | Yahoo Pre-Season Rankings | |||
| Rank | Name | Rank | Name | |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | |
| 2 | Austin Ekeler | 2 | Austin Ekeler | |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | 3 | Nick Chubb | |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson | 4 | Bijan Robinson | |
| 5 | Tony Pollard | 5 | Tony Pollard | |
| 6 | Nick Chubb | 6 | Saquon Barkley | |
| 7 | Josh Jacobs | 7 | Derrick Henry | |
| 8 | Derrick Henry | 8 | Josh Jacobs | |
| 9 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | Travis Etienne | |
| 10 | Joe Mixon | 10 | Joe Mixon | |
| 11 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | Aaron Jones | |
| 12 | Najee Harris | 12 | Najee Harris | |
Table 1 – 2023 Point-Per-Reception Running Back Rankings
Finding five years of Fantasy Football Rankings can be challenging. Transparency can backfire if your predictions are inaccurate, which is a motivation for rankings to disappear. Nevertheless, users can still access past rankings from ESPN and Yahoo. Additionally, Fantasy Pros and ADP consensus rankings are available. Given his popularity as a fantasy expert, Matthew Berry’s past rankings are also accessible.
You cannot compare rankings solely based on fantasy points. Quarterbacks score more points than other positions but are ranked lower because their point difference is smaller. The most accurate method for comparing rankings is by position: the predicted position rank versus the final position rank. For clarity, Teams In A Vacuum compared the ranks of quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers separately.
Standard deviation is the Swiss Army knife of statistical analysis. It is defined as the distribution of values around the mean (average). The smaller the standard deviation, the closer the values in the distribution are to each other. When plotted, a normal distribution of values resembles a bell curve with the standard deviation positioned exactly in the center. In this analysis, Figure 1 illustrates the first two rounds of running backs and wide receivers (the top 24 in each category) and one round of quarterbacks (the top 12). This analysis thus represents the first five picks in a PPR draft. The distribution of wide receivers is broader than that of running backs, resulting in a wider curve and a greater difference in fantasy points scored, which makes the curve taller.
Figure 1 – Standard Deviation Curves For WRs, RBs, And QBs
Table 2 presents the standard deviations for the past five years. The larger standard deviations of wide receivers indicate that they are a “feast or famine” position. A clear example is the difference in Justin Jefferson, who was the top wide receiver in 2022 but dropped to WR33 in 2023. Setting aside injuries, wide receivers like Jaylen Waddle (WR9) and Tyler Lockett (WR13) in 2022 both scored 50 points less in 2023, finishing at WR34 and WR32, respectively.
| Year | Position | Average Draft Position | ESPN | Fantasy Pros | Matthew Berry | Yahoo |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Quarterbacks | 6.27 | 5.79 | 3.81 | 6.49 | 3.49 | |
| Running Backs | 8.27 | 7.30 | 8.28 | 9.08 | 7.64 | |
| Wide Receivers | 16.86 | 16.94 | 16.81 | 18.08 | 14.56 | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Quarterbacks | 4.47 | 4.33 | 3.80 | 3.94 | 3.55 | |
| Running Backs | 12.30 | 11.40 | 12.45 | 12.56 | 12.98 | |
| Wide Receivers | 21.61 | 21.71 | 21.12 | 21.05 | 20.69 | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Quarterbacks | 2.90 | 2.61 | 2.55 | 3.01 | 2.67 | |
| Running Backs | 9.85 | 10.22 | 10.13 | 10.33 | 9.69 | |
| Wide Receivers | 17.01 | 16.75 | 16.97 | 16.57 | 16.82 | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Quarterbacks | 3.73 | 3.96 | 5.47 | 3.36 | 3.60 | |
| Running Backs | 9.44 | 9.44 | 9.34 | 8.83 | 10.21 | |
| Wide Receivers | 9.82 | 8.92 | 11.47 | 14.43 | 10.62 | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Quarterbacks | 5.82 | 5.66 | 5.89 | 6.00 | 5.64 | |
| Running Backs | 6.48 | 6.74 | 7.23 | 7.41 | 7.26 | |
| Wide Receivers | 8.49 | 8.98 | 7.74 | 9.30 | 7.55 | |
| QB Average | 4.64 | 4.47 | 4.31 | 4.56 | 3.79 | |
| RB Average | 9.27 | 9.02 | 9.49 | 9.64 | 9.56 | |
| WR Average | 14.76 | 14.66 | 14.82 | 15.89 | 14.05 | |
| Average Standard Deviation | 9.55 | 9.38 | 9.54 | 10.03 | 9.13 |
Table 2 – 2019-2023 Standard Deviations (smaller is better)
As mentioned earlier, ADP reflects the average draft positions from all fantasy drafts combined. ADP represents the collective opinion of the masses. Unfortunately, the masses did not outperform any of the consensus expert rankings.
| Position | Average Draft Position | ESPN | Fantasy Pros | Matthew Berry | Yahoo |
| Quarterback Ranks | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Running Back Ranks | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Wide Receiver Ranks | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Overall Ranks | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Table 3 – Ranks OF The Rankings
In summary, the average of experts surpasses the average of individuals. ESPN claims it had 12 million fantasy football participants in 2023, making it by far the largest fantasy platform. Although ESPN has 25% more participants than Yahoo, an effective strategy would be to use the Yahoo rankings in an ESPN draft. Teams In A Vacuum will continue this analysis in search of PPR rankings that are more accurate than Yahoo’s. If you have PPR rankings that you would like analyzed, please contact me on X @TiavGuy.