Draft Strategies – Teams In A Vacuum

Baseball vs Football

Baseball is more complicated than football. Okay, maybe not when it comes to actual gameplay, but Fantasy Baseball is far more complex than Fantasy Football. Consider defense—starting and relief pitchers account for half of the scoring categories in Fantasy Baseball, while defense and special teams are categorized as one player in Fantasy Football.

The early rounds of a Fantasy Football draft are simple. Since seven of the top-ten point scorers in Fantasy Football are quarterbacks, drafting one of the three elite non-quarterbacks gives teams a significant advantage. Fantasy Football managers prioritize top running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds. Teams In A Vacuum (TIAV) ran thousands of simulations using eight years of rotisserie data to develop a simplified Fantasy Baseball draft strategy.

Starting from a fundamental premise in fantasy sports, “You can’t win your league with your first pick, but you can lose it,” TIAV analyzed the first three picks in Rotisserie Baseball drafts.

ADP	Player Name	PreSeason Position	End Position	Runs	Home Runs	RBIs	Stolen Bases	Average	Wins	ERA	Saves	Strike Outs	WHIP
9	Juan Sotoﾠ	OF5	OF2	128	41	109	7	0.288
20	Corbin Burnesﾠ	SP2	SP6						15	2.96	0	181	1.1
36	Yoshinobu Yamamotoﾠ	SP6	SP81						7	3.1	0	105	1.12
47	Tarik Skubalﾠ	SP12	SP1						18	2.39	0	228	0.92
63	Kyle Schwarberﾠ	OF15	OF6	110	38	104	5	0.248
77	Zach Eflinﾠ	SP21	SP47						10	3.59	0	134	1.15
100	George Springerﾠ	OF21	OF73	74	19	56	16	0.22
109	Lane Thomasﾠ	OF24	OF45	65	15	63	32	0.237
127	Anthony Volpeﾠ	SS12	SS20	90	12	60	28	0.243
142	Luis Arraezﾠ	1B14	1B8	83	4	46	9	0.314
168	Nolan Gormanﾠ	2B14	2B38	42	19	50	6	0.203
209	Robert Suarezﾠ	RP22	RP44						9	2.77	36	59	1.05
254	Matt Chapmanﾠ	3B13	3B6	98	27	78	15	0.247
307	Yennier Canoﾠ	RP29	RP32						4	3.15	5	65	1.3
446	Jeff Hoffmanﾠ	RP48	RP10						3	2.17	10	89	0.96
Team	10

Table 1 – 2024 12-Team Rotisserie League Winner

Teams In A Vacuum Overview

TIAV utilizes historical data to snake draft teams using the Average Draft Position (ADP) and overlays the fantasy results for the corresponding season. The system assigns points for each rotisserie category for every team (from best to worst), totals the points, and determines a winning team for each year.

TIAV teams are comprised of:

Quantity	Position
1	First Base
1	Second Base
1	Third Base
1	Short Stop
3	Outfielders
1	Designated Hitter – filled by next best batter in ADP
4	Starting Pitchers
3	Relief Pitchers

Table 2 – Baseball Team Positions Drafted By Teams In A Vacuum

Please note that not enough catchers score in the top 300 players, so the Catcher position is excluded.

Your First Three Picks

Examining the simulations from the past eight years, TIAV found that 58% of winning teams had no underperforming players among their first three picks. The remaining 42% of winning teams had one underperforming player in their initial three selections. TIAV indicates that winning your league with more than one underperforming player in your first three picks is impossible. An underperforming player is defined as a player who finishes ten spots or more below their preseason positional ranking. For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a 2024 preseason ranking of “starting pitcher #6,” but after going 7-2, he injured his rotator cuff and ended the season ranked as “starting pitcher #81.”

2024	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team	2020	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team
Position Deviation	-3	-76	5	Position Deviation	7	-3	-70
Underperformer		Y. Yamamoto		Underperformer			Walker Buehler
Draft Position	4	9	11	Draft Position	5	7	14

2023	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team	2019	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team
Position Deviation	-38	0	3	Position Deviation	0	-42	-6
Underperformer	Justin Verlander			Underperformer		Aaron Judge
Draft Position	9	12	7	Draft Position	2	12	3

2022	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team	2018	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team
Position Deviation	-20	-6	-28	Position Deviation	-28	-19	3
Underperformer	Ronald Acuna		Bryce Harper	Underperformer	Aaron Judge	George Springer
Draft Position	2	2	7	Draft Position	1	2	12

2021	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team	2017	10-Team	12-Team	16-Team
Position Deviation	-2	-32	-26	Position Deviation	7	-2	-9
Underperformer		Jacob deGrom	Blake Snell	Underperformer
Draft Position	4	6	11	Draft Position	5	7	7

Table 3 – First Three Picks Of Winning Teams

In Table 3, the Position Deviation for a team is calculated by subtracting the finishing positional ranking of the first three players from their preseason positional ranking and totaling the results –

	Draft Pick	Player Name	PreSeason Rank	Finish Rank	Position Deviation
10-Team
	4	Bobby Witt Jr.ﾠ	SS1	SS1	0
	20	Corbin Burnesﾠ	SP2	SP6	-4
	28	Elly De La Cruzﾠ	SS5	SS4	1
					-3

With regards to the underperformers, half were outfielders, and the other half were starting pitchers. Since these positions typically account for 50% of the team, this indicates that outfielders and starting pitchers experience a higher injury rate. For anyone who has played Fantasy Baseball, the fact that starting pitchers are more prone to injuries is not surprising. The real surprise is that outfielders can be just as susceptible to injuries as starting pitchers.

Taking this into account and referring to the 2025 FantasyPros rankings, the following infielders should be prioritized in your draft:

First Round – Bobby Witt Jr, Elly De La Cruz, Jose Ramirez
Second Round – Francisco Lindor, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bryce Harper
Third Round – Freddie Freeman, Ketel Marte, Austin Riley

TIAV dictates that you draft either one outfielder or one starting pitcher in your first three picks.

Starting Pitchers

In a 2023 article, I compared starting pitchers to quarterbacks – they score the same number of points, so you can afford to wait to draft them. However, recent TIAV simulations indicate that this guideline was a mistake in 2024.

The 2024 TIAV winning teams in 10-Team, 12-Team, and 16-Team leagues selected starting pitchers in the first two rounds. This indicates that postponing the drafting of starting pitchers last year was unwise. Furthermore, the 2024 TIAV winners have multiple starting pitchers among their top five picks.

			10-Team Rotisserie League
ADP	Player Name	PreSeason Position	End Position	Runs	Home Runs	RBIs	Stolen Bases	Average	Wins	ERA	Saves	Strike Outs	WHIP
4	Bobby Witt Jr.ﾠ	SS1	SS1	125	32	109	31	0.332
20	Corbin Burnesﾠ	SP2	SP6						15	2.96	0	181	1.1
28	Elly De La Cruzﾠ	SS5	SS4	105	25	76	67	0.259
42	Randy Arozarenaﾠ	OF12	OF57	77	20	60	20	0.219
50	Max Friedﾠ	SP14	SP28						11	3.25	0	166	1.16
64	Jazz Chisholm Jr.ﾠ	3B6	3B5	74	24	73	40	0.256
76	Raisel Iglesiasﾠ	RP5	RP20						6	1.95	34	68	0.74
92	Spencer Steerﾠ	1B9	1B13	74	20	92	25	0.225
103	Seiya Suzukiﾠ	OF22	OF11	74	21	73	16	0.283
123	Anthony Santanderﾠ	OF26	OF17	91	44	102	2	0.235
133	Hunter Greeneﾠ	SP36	SP24						9	2.75	0	169	1.02
155	Yu Darvishﾠ	SP42	SP101						7	3.31	0	78	1.07
168	Nolan Gormanﾠ	2B14	2B38	42	19	50	6	0.203
315	Aroldis Chapmanﾠ	RP30	RP33						5	3.79	14	98	1.35
361	Griffin Jaxﾠ	RP36	RP6						5	2.03	10	95	0.87
Team	4

			16-Team Rotisserie League
ADP	Player Name	PreSeason Position	End Position	Runs	Home Runs	RBIs	Stolen Bases	Average	Wins	ERA	Saves	Strike Outs	WHIP
11	Aaron Judgeﾠ	OF7	OF1	122	58	144	10	0.322
27	Zack Wheelerﾠ	SP3	SP2						16	2.57	0	224	0.95
48	Aaron Nolaﾠ	SP13	SP15						14	3.61	0	197	1.2
62	Nico Hoernerﾠ	2B5	2B5	86	7	48	31	0.273
90	Cole Ragansﾠ	SP27	SP9						11	3.19	0	223	1.15
106	Teoscar Hernandezﾠ	OF23	OF9	84	33	99	12	0.272
134	Marcell Ozunaﾠ	OF30	OF3	96	39	104	1	0.302
154	Jake Burgerﾠ	1B15	1B17	68	29	76	1	0.251
187	Rhys Hoskinsﾠ	1B19	1B28	59	26	82	3	0.214
207	Tommy Edmanﾠ	SS16	SS21	20	6	20	6	0.237
231	Cristopher Sanchezﾠ	SP66	SP37						11	3.27	0	153	1.24
255	Eugenio Suarezﾠ	3B14	3B4	90	30	101	2	0.256
367	Michael Kopechﾠ	RP38	RP37						6	3.46	15	88	1.15
439	Kirby Yatesﾠ	RP46	RP13						7	1.17	33	85	0.83
Team	10

Table 4 – 10-Team and 16-Team League Winners

When To Draft Your First Starting Pitcher

The trends from TIAV present a different perspective regarding starting pitchers. Winning teams drafted from 2017 to 2024 indicate that you should select your first starting pitcher within the range of picks 40 to 56. Using the 2025 FantasyPros rankings, one of the following starting pitchers should be your team’s first choice: Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. This recommendation applies regardless of the league size.

League Type	Year	Winning Team	First Starting Pitcher	Draft Position	PreSeason Position	End Position	Roto Points
10-Team Rotisserie	2017	5	Carlos Carrasco	59 – 6th Player on Team	SP14	SP5	69
	2018	1	David Price	95 – 9th Player on Team	SP24	SP26	75
	2019	2	Jack Flaherty	66 – 7th Player on Team	SP17	SP6	76
	2020	4	Shane Bieber	27 – 3rd Player on Team	SP7	SP1	76
	2021	4	Max Fried	87 – 8th Player on Team	SP23	SP26	77
	2022	2	Logan Webb	67 – 7th Player on Team	SP20	SP53	84
	2023	9	Justin Verlander	30 – 3rd Player on Team	SP7	SP45	81
	2024	4	Corbin Burnes	20 – 2nd Player on Team	SP2	SP6	73
			Avg First Starting Pitcher	56 – 6th Player on Team

League Type	Year	Winning Team	First Starting Pitcher	Draft Position	PreSeason Position	End Position	Roto Points
12-Team Rotisserie	2017	7	Carlos Martinez	71 – 6th Player on Team	SP18	SP13	98
	2018	2	Carlos Martinez	56 – 5th Player on Team	SP24	SP26	86
	2019	11	Zack Greinke	66 – 6th Player on Team	SP16	SP11	102
	2020	7	Gerrit Cole	7 – 1st Player on Team	SP1	SP5	82
	2021	6	Jacob deGrom	6 – 1st Player on Team	SP1	SP36	93
	2022	2	Carlos Rodon	82 – 7th Player on Team	SP23	SP2	96
	2023	12	Gerrit Cole	13 – 2nd Player on Team	SP2	SP4	78
	2024	4	Corbin Burnes	20 – 2nd Player on Team	SP2	SP6	84
			Avg First Starting Pitcher	40 – 4th Player on Team

League Type	Year	Winning Team	First Starting Pitcher	Draft Position	PreSeason Position	End Position	Roto Points
16-Team Rotisserie	2017	7	Yu Darvish	40 – 3rd Player on Team	SP10	SP15	121
	2018	12	Max Scherzer	12 – 1st Player on Team	SP24	SP26	126
	2019	3	Zack Greinke	65 – 4th Player on Team	SP16	SP11	115
	2020	13	Walker Buehler	21 – 2nd Player on Team	SP5	SP77	134
	2021	10	Max Scherzer	24 – 1st Player on Team	SP9	SP2	121
	2022	7	Luis Castillo	118 – 7th Player on Team	SP34	SP27	121
	2023	7	Zac Gallen	62 – 4th Player on Team	SP20	SP12	117
	2024	10	Zach Wheeler	27 – 2nd Player on Team	SP3	SP2	136
			Avg First Starting Pitcher	46 – 3rd Player on Team

Table 5 – Draft Position Of First Starting Pitcher On Winning Teams

Conclusion

Teams In A Vacuum still hasn’t discovered the holy grail of Fantasy Baseball drafting. However, TIAV simulations indicate that your first three picks should include two infielders and an outfielder. For your first starting pitcher, wait until at least pick number 40 and aim for one of the following: Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Once your draft is complete, pray to the fantasy gods for a healthy, scandal-free team. Happy drafting!